AIER: New York jobs gains are helping mortgage borrowers


Healthy jobs gains around most of New York state are helping mortgage borrowers keep up on monthly payments, according to the American Institute for Economic Research. The latest analysis was presented in the most recent “NYCUA Monthly Economic Review,” which is provided as a benefit of membership to Association member credit unions.

According to AIER:

Healthy jobs gains around most of New York State are helping mortgage borrowers keep up on monthly payments. A decade after the housing market imploded, contributing to the worst recession since the Great Depression, ongoing job creation is helping key metrics for mortgage borrowers move to favorable levels.

The unemployment rate in New York came in at 4.7 percent in July, down from a recession high of 8.9 percent in 2009. While the latest rate is up slightly from the 4.3 percent recorded in March 2017, it is still well below the long-run average of 6.6 percent since 1976. Jobs gains across the state have been led by New York City, which has seen employment rise by almost 24 percent since 2004. Most of the other metro areas tallied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show good gains over the past decade.

One key area that reflects the improved labor market is mortgages. Delinquency rates for outstanding mortgage loans in New York have been trending lower over the past several years. The accompanying chart shows delinquency rates and foreclosure rates over the past 20 years. For each category, the blue bar represents the range of values for rates over the entire period (the top of the blue bar is the highest rate and the bottom is the lowest rate). The green line in each bar is the rate as of the second quarter of 2017. The total delinquency rate stands at 4.9 percent, in the lower half of the 3.3 percent to 9.5 percent range. In fact, every current measure of delinquency or foreclosure is below the midpoint of the historical range. For the categories 30-day delinquent, 60-day delinquent, and new foreclosures started, the current rate is very close to the low end.

For the housing market and most areas of the economy, in New York and the nation as a whole, a strong labor market is a cornerstone of the current expansion and a strong support for continued economic growth.

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