Q4 Profile Report: Supply chain disruptions, omicron variant dash hopes of quick return to normalcy

The New York Credit Union Association, in conjunction with CUNA, has released the Fourth Quarter 2021 New York Credit Union Profile report. The report provides relevant and up-to-date analysis of key statistics and trends that impact credit union performance.

The report states that “nagging” global supply chain disruptions were showing definite signs of improvement by the start of the fourth quarter, but hopes of any “return to normal” were dashed by the combination of the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot and the appearance of COVID’s omicron variant.

October ended with a big jump in the employment cost index, quickly followed by both a strong employment report (with big job creation numbers and a rapidly falling unemployment rate) and a Consumer Price Index that showed a surge in year-over year inflation, according to the report. The Fed then responded with progressively hawkish public statements.

Other highlights from the report include:

  • New York’s unemployment rate remained higher than the U.S. norm during the quarter, finishing the year at 5.4%;
  • overall price increases for the year came in at 7%, the fastest 12-month increase since June 1982;
  • the FHFA all-transaction home price index for New York increased by 2.3% in the fourth quarter (9.1% annualized) and was up 14% in the year;
  • the omicron variant surge had little effect on credit union financial results which continued to reflect very strong earnings, solid membership gains, fast loan growth, and relatively slow savings growth during the fourth quarter;
  • the growth rate in credit union loans outpaced the growth rate in savings balances for the third consecutive quarter, however, credit unions remain flush with liquidity;
  • weaker savings (hence asset) growth and very strong earnings helped to nudge the movement’s net worth ratio up in the three-month period;
  • credit union loan balances increased 2.7% (10.8% annualized) in the fourth quarter and 7.7% in the year;
  • with loan growth outpacing savings growth, the movement’s loan-to-savings ratio increased from 69.9% to 70.7% in the quarter; and
  • higher market interest rates are expected to reduce loan demand on the margin.

The report concluded that credit unions started 2022 in generally good financial shape and nearly all should have the resources to continue to serve in meaningful ways as millions of members struggle to make it through the omicron surge and related personal financial challenges.

The report (log-in required) was emailed to the main contacts at Association member credit unions on Friday. For assistance with accessing the reports, contact the Association’s member relations team at member.relations@nycua.org or (800) 342-9835, ext. 8546.

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