In its May 2020 Credit Union Trends report, based on data from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, CUNA Mutual Group found that:
- credit unions added 147,000 in new memberships;
- loan and savings balances grew at an 8.8% and 9.0% seasonally adjusted annualized pace;
- firms laid off 870,000 workers;
- nominal consumer spending fell 7.5%;
- long-term interest rates decreased 58 basis points; and
- real GDP fell 4.8% in the first quarter due to falling consumer spending and business investment.
Additionally, CUNA Mutual Group’s latest economic forecasts include:
- the economy contracting at a 35% annualized pace in the second quarter;
- the unemployment rate rising over 20% in the second quarter and deflationary pressures pushing the inflation rate into negative territory;
- the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the fed funds interest rate at 0.1% until the unemployment rate returns to around 5% sometime in 2023; and
- the 10-year Treasury interest rate will remain below 1.5% until 2022 due to low inflation expectations and massive quantitative easing by central banks around the world.
To view the full report, click here.
The Credit Union Trends Report is a monthly “pulse check” on the state of the credit union marketplace, often placed in a historical context. The report includes data from two months prior and is published and distributed by Steven Rick, chief economist for CUNA Mutual Group. The Trends Report is intended to provide a review and analysis of recent credit union financial performance and operational results in the context of recent economic activity. Data and analysis are provided to establish standards against which credit unions’ own performance can be compared.