In its June 2020 Credit Union Trends report, based on data from April, the first full month COVID-19 pandemic, CUNA Mutual Group reported that:
- the economy lost 20.7 million jobs;
- the unemployment rate increased to 14.7%;
- personal income rose 10.5%;
- personal spending fell 13.6%;
- consumer prices fell 0.8%;
- new home sales rose 0.6%;
- existing home sales fell 17.8%;
- auto sales fell 20%;
- home prices rose 1.3%; and
- the 10-year Treasury interest rate decreased 21 basis points to average 0.66%.
CUNA Mutual Group also found that:
- credit union credit card loan balances fell 4.3% in April, below the 0.7% rise in April 2019 as the effects of the COVID-19 economic lock down were in full force;
- credit union fixed-rate first mortgage loan balances rose at a 33% seasonally adjusted annual rate in April, the fastest in credit union history; and
- credit union savings balances rose 4.7% in April, compared to the 0.6% drop reported in April 2019.
“Our latest economic forecasts have the economy contracting at a 30% annualized pace in the second quarter, the unemployment rate remaining over 10% during 2021 and deflationary pressures pushing the inflation rate into negative territory,” the report states. “The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the Fed funds interest rate at 0.1% until the unemployment rate returns to around 5%, likely sometime in 2023. The 10-year Treasury interest rate will remain below 1.5% until 2022 due to low inflation expectations and massive quantitative easing by central banks around the world.”
To view the full report, click here.
The Credit Union Trends Report is a monthly “pulse check” on the state of the credit union marketplace, often placed in a historical context. The report includes data from two months prior and is published and distributed by Steven Rick, chief economist for CUNA Mutual Group. The Trends Report is intended to provide a review and analysis of recent credit union financial performance and operational results in the context of recent economic activity. Data and analysis are provided to establish standards against which credit unions’ own performance can be compared.